prediction markets will not force Texas to legalise sports betting

Experts believe prediction markets operating in Texas will not persuade politicians to legalise online sports wagering.

Written by the BettingEdgeHub desk, 24 September 2026

California and Texas remain the biggest states without legal online sports betting. Prediction markets currently operate in both places. This has led some people to hope that legal sports betting might soon follow.

Texas views on gambling expansion

Lawmakers in Texas are expected to consider sports betting legislation again soon. However, experts think prediction markets will not change the minds of politicians who historically oppose gambling. Some observers even believe that the presence of these exchanges might make lawmakers push back harder against betting.

Industry research suggests that pointing out lost state tax revenue will not work on Texas politicians. The state budget is massive, and standard tax rates on sports betting would not move the needle. Unless Texas considers extremely high tax rates, the financial upside is too small for politicians to care.

The threat of new restrictions

Instead of legalising sports betting to compete with prediction markets, Texas could choose to restrict them directly. Lawmakers might also wait for a potential supreme court decision regarding sports event contracts. Both options mean sports betting proponents will likely not get what they want anytime soon.

The debate gives opponents fresh arguments regarding the financial risks of frequent wagering. Increased focus on young men who are active bettors could weigh heavily on politicians. Because of these factors, the upcoming legislative push faces more downside than upside.

What it means for a bet

Bettors in Texas should not expect legal online sportsbooks to launch anytime soon based on the current political climate.

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