The matchupThe market makes Werder Bremen the side to beat here at 51%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Werder Bremen, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Werder Bremen return to their home ground with a stronger recent run of results than their opponents. The odds of 1.80 offer fair value for a side facing a struggling visiting team.
Form and momentumWerder Bremen come in poor, winning 26% of 38 on record. 7 of their 19 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
SC Paderborn 07 come in poor, winning 25% of 4 on record. 0 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 51% for SVW, 24% for the draw and 25% for SCP once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Werder Bremen, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.80, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Werder Bremen suffered two defeats in their last five matches which shows they can be beaten when their defense slips up.
- SC Paderborn 07 grabbed a win in their latest outing and might carry unexpected fight into this clash despite their poor overall form.
The bottom lineWe back Werder Bremen for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.