The matchupThe market makes Werder Bremen the side to beat here at 41%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on FC Augsburg, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Augsburg arrive at the Weserstadion with strong momentum from four wins in their last five matches. Bremen look vulnerable after suffering four consecutive defeats in the league.
Form and momentumWerder Bremen come in poor, winning 24% of 37 on record. 6 of their 18 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
FC Augsburg come in patchy, winning 38% of 37 on record. 6 of their 18 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 41% for SVW, 25% for the draw and 35% for FCA once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.65, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
When these two meetAcross 2 past meetings FCA have had the better of it, 1 wins to 0, with 1 drawn. Squads change, so read it as colour rather than proof.
Where it could go wrong- Werder Bremen won their most recent match and might use that result to spark a turnaround at home.
- FC Augsburg suffered a recent defeat in their last five games which proves they are not completely unbeatable.
The bottom lineWe back FC Augsburg for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.