The matchupThe market makes NAC Breda the side to beat here at 41%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on NAC Breda, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. NAC Breda are the favorites for a reason despite their recent wobbles in the league table. Vitesse have been inconsistent lately and I expect the visitors to edge this contest.
Form and momentumVitesse come in solid, winning 57% of 7 on record. 2 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
NAC Breda come in poor, winning 23% of 40 on record. 2 of their 19 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 2 wins in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 35% for VIT, 24% for the draw and 41% for NAC once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.25, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- NAC Breda have struggled to find consistency lately as they have recorded two losses and one draw in their last five outings before this Saturday afternoon game.
- The home side Vitesse will have the advantage of playing at the GelreDome where the crowd support often helps them push for a result against better opponents.
The bottom lineWe back NAC Breda for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.