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Betting tips › Champions League ›  Villarreal v Napoli

 Champions LeagueTue 13 Oct 19:00 UTCEstadio de la Cerámica

Villarreal v Napoli tips

VILVillarrealWWLLL
VS
NAPNapoliDWLLL
The model callOver 2.5Total goals1.67★★★★2 stars

Both teams bring terrible defensive form into this group stage match at Estadio de la Cerámica. Expect an open game where the goals line of 2.5 gets beaten by the end of the night.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$33.4
Profit$13.4
Why it might land
  • Villarreal come into this fixture having lost three consecutive matches while shipping goals in bunches across their recent run.
  • Napoli travel to Spain carrying their own worries after suffering three defeats and a draw from their last five outings.
  • The bookmakers offer a generous price of 1.67 on over 2.5 goals which suggests the market expects a busy night for the goalkeepers.
Why it might not
  • Villarreal managed back to back wins just before their current slump so they might suddenly rediscover some defensive organization here.
  • Napoli only managed one win in their last five attempts and might struggle to find the net if their attack stays cold.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Since Villarreal and Napoli both lost three of their last five matches while showing zero defensive solidity, both teams should score.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Villarreal the side to beat here at 42%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Over 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Both teams bring terrible defensive form into this group stage match at Estadio de la Cerámica. Expect an open game where the goals line of 2.5 gets beaten by the end of the night.

Form and momentum

Villarreal come in patchy, winning 43% of 40 on record. 11 of their 18 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 2 wins in a row.

Napoli come in solid, winning 48% of 40 on record. 8 of their 19 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 42% for VIL, 27% for the draw and 31% for NAP once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Villarreal, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.67, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Villarreal managed back to back wins just before their current slump so they might suddenly rediscover some defensive organization here.
  • Napoli only managed one win in their last five attempts and might struggle to find the net if their attack stays cold.
The bottom line

We back Over 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceBet365
VIL2.20draw3.50NAP3.10
SourceDraftKingsVIL +120
VIL2.20draw3.50NAP3.00

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

VILVillarreal40 games on record
Won17
Drawn6
Lost17
  • Scored68and let in64
  • At home11 winsfrom18
  • Right now2 wins in a row
Last fiveWWLLL
NAPNapoli40 games on record
Won19
Drawn10
Lost11
  • Scored54and let in41
  • On the road8 winsfrom19
  • Right now1 draw in a row
Last fiveDWLLL

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Villarreal v Napoli goals or draw?

Both teams bring terrible defensive form into this group stage match at Estadio de la Cerámica. Expect an open game where the goals line of 2.5 gets beaten by the end of the night. The site model says...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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