The matchupThe market makes Sampdoria the side to beat here at 36%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Under 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Goals look hard to find here based on recent scoring trends and tight prices. Sampdoria struggles to win matches on the road while Avellino keeps things very cagey.
Form and momentumUS Avellino come in patchy, winning 40% of 5 on record. 1 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
Sampdoria come in poor, winning 20% of 5 on record. 0 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 34% for AVE, 30% for the draw and 36% for SAM once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.74, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Sampdoria managed to win one of their last five outings which proves they can occasionally find the back of the net.
- US Avellino has enough erratic form in their recent matches to make backing a low goal line a slight risk.
The bottom lineWe back Under 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.