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Betting tips › Ligue 1 ›  Troyes v Lens

 Ligue 1Sat 17 Oct 18:45 UTCStade de l'Aube

Troyes v Lens tips

TRYTroyesLLLWD
VS
RCLLensLDWLL
The model callOver 2.5Total goals1.54★★★★2 stars

We expect goals at Stade de l'Aube because the price of 1.54 on over 2.5 total goals offers a solid angle. Both sides have leaked losses in recent weeks.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$30.8
Profit$10.8
Why it might land
  • The total goals line of 2.5 has a generous price of 1.54 for the over market which reflects real expectations of an open game.
  • Troyes arrives at Stade de l'Aube carrying a poor run of recent results that includes three straight defeats and plenty of defensive issues.
  • Lens travels to this fixture after suffering back to back losses which suggests their back line is far from secure right now.
Why it might not
  • Lens managed only one win across their last five matches which shows they can struggle to break opponents down consistently.
  • Troyes picked up a draw and a win in their other two recent outings proving they can sometimes shut games down.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both teams should score because their recent defensive records leave a lot to be desired.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Lens the side to beat here at 52%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Over 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. We expect goals at Stade de l'Aube because the price of 1.54 on over 2.5 total goals offers a solid angle. Both sides have leaked losses in recent weeks.

Form and momentum

Troyes come in poor, winning 20% of 5 on record. 0 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 3 losss in a row.

Lens come in strong, winning 60% of 40 on record. 9 of their 21 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 24% for TRY, 24% for the draw and 52% for RCL once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Lens, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.54, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Lens managed only one win across their last five matches which shows they can struggle to break opponents down consistently.
  • Troyes picked up a draw and a win in their other two recent outings proving they can sometimes shut games down.
The bottom line

We back Over 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceBet365
TRY4.00draw3.80RCL1.80
SourceDraftKingsRCL -125
TRY3.90draw3.90RCL1.80

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

TRYTroyes5 games on record
Won1
Drawn1
Lost3
  • Scored4and let in11
  • At home0 winsfrom2
  • Right now3 losss in a row
Last fiveLLLWD
RCLLens40 games on record
Won24
Drawn5
Lost11
  • Scored78and let in46
  • On the road9 winsfrom21
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLDWLL

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Goals in Troyes v Lens?

The site model calls the draw here. We like over 2.5 goals at 1.54 because both teams have been leaking losses lately. On the other hand, Lens only won one of their last five matches. What are you lot...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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