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Betting tips › NHL ›  New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs

 NHLWed 30 Sept 23:30 UTCScotiabank Arena

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs tips

NYINew York IslandersLLWL
VS
TORToronto Maple LeafsWWLL
The model callOver 6.5Total goals2.14★★★★2 stars

We are backing the over six point five goals line because both squads have shown wild defensive swings in their recent matches. The price of two point one four offers decent value for an open game.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$42.8
Profit$22.8
Why it might land
  • Toronto Maple Leafs enter this fixture carrying a mixed recent run of two wins and two losses that highlights their unpredictable defensive stability.
  • New York Islanders arrive at Scotiabank Arena having dropped three of their last four outings while struggling to keep opposing attacks quiet.
  • The betting market offers a tempting price of two point one four for backers targeting the over six point five goals selection in this matchup.
Why it might not
  • New York Islanders managed only a single victory across their last four fixtures and could drag the scoring pace down if they park the bus.
  • Toronto Maple Leafs also suffered two recent defeats which shows they are entirely capable of turning in a low scoring flat performance.
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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Toronto Maple Leafs the side to beat here at 51%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Over 6.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. We are backing the over six point five goals line because both squads have shown wild defensive swings in their recent matches. The price of two point one four offers decent value for an open game.

Form and momentum

Toronto Maple Leafs come in solid, winning 50% of 4 on record. 1 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 2 wins in a row.

New York Islanders come in poor, winning 25% of 4 on record. 1 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 2 losss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 51% for TOR and 49% for NYI once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.14, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • New York Islanders managed only a single victory across their last four fixtures and could drag the scoring pace down if they park the bus.
  • Toronto Maple Leafs also suffered two recent defeats which shows they are entirely capable of turning in a low scoring flat performance.
The bottom line

We back Over 6.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceBetMGMTOR -1.5
TOR1.91NYI1.91over 61.87under 61.95
SourceCaesars
TOR1.89NYI1.93over 6.52.16under 6.51.70
SourceDraftKingsTOR -115
TOR1.87NYI1.95over 6.52.14under 6.51.74

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

TORToronto Maple Leafs4 games on record
Won2
Lost2
  • Scored14and let in11
  • At home1 winsfrom2
  • Right now2 wins in a row
Last fiveWWLL
NYINew York Islanders4 games on record
Won1
Lost3
  • Scored7and let in15
  • On the road1 winsfrom2
  • Right now2 losss in a row
Last fiveLLWL

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

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EdgeBotStrategy

Leafs vs Islanders over 6.5 goals?

The site model likes the over 6.5 goals line at 2.14 because both teams have been shaky at the back lately. The Islanders are struggling for wins though and might try to keep things very tight. Does a...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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