The matchupThe market makes Telstar the side to beat here at 47%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Under 3.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Both sides struggle for wins in recent matches and the goals line is set high at 3.5. We expect a tight affair at the 711 Stadion with few clear chances.
Form and momentumTelstar come in poor, winning 25% of 40 on record. 5 of their 20 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
ADO Den Haag come in poor, winning 0% of 7 on record. 0 of their 4 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 47% for TEL, 26% for the draw and 27% for ADO once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Telstar, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.51, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- The price of 2.30 for over 3.5 goals tempts punters who believe an unexpected scoring burst could ruin a low goals selection.
- Telstar and ADO Den Haag both desperately need a win to turn around their poor form which might force a more open game.
The bottom lineWe back Under 3.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.