The matchupThe market makes Swansea City the side to beat here at 46%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Swansea City, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Swansea have picked up some decent form lately. Burnley look stuck in a rut and cannot buy a win.
Form and momentumSwansea City come in patchy, winning 40% of 40 on record. 10 of their 20 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
Burnley come in poor, winning 8% of 40 on record. 2 of their 21 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 46% for SWA, 27% for the draw and 27% for BUR once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Swansea City, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 2.20, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Swansea failed to win their most recent outing in the league.
- Burnley are tough to beat even when they do not win.
The bottom lineWe back Swansea City for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.