The matchupThe market makes Stoke City the side to beat here at 37%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Stoke City, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Stoke City are in better winning form than Sheffield United heading into this match at the bet365 Stadium. The home price of 2.55 offers fair value for a side putting together a strong run of results.
Form and momentumStoke City come in patchy, winning 35% of 40 on record. 9 of their 20 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
Sheffield United come in patchy, winning 40% of 40 on record. 7 of their 20 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 2 losss in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 37% for STK, 28% for the draw and 35% for SHU once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.55, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
When these two meetAcross 2 past meetings SHU have had the better of it, 2 wins to 0, with 0 drawn. Squads change, so read it as colour rather than proof.
Where it could go wrong- Sheffield United managed a draw in their most recent fixture which shows they can be stubborn opponents on their day.
- Stoke City did lose one of their last five matches which proves they are still capable of slipping up unexpectedly.
The bottom lineWe back Stoke City for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.