The matchupThe market makes 1. FC Magdeburg the side to beat here at 38%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Over 3.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. We should see goals here because the odds suggest an open match and both sides have mixed results recently. Magdeburg arrives with a varied run of form that includes several high scoring matches.
Form and momentumSpVgg Greuther Fürth come in poor, winning 20% of 5 on record. 0 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
1. FC Magdeburg come in strong, winning 60% of 5 on record. 1 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 36% for SGF, 26% for the draw and 38% for FCM once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.20, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Greuther Furth has struggled to find consistent scoring form lately which could keep the total score down.
- Magdeburg recently suffered a defeat where their attack failed to click against stubborn defensive opponents.
The bottom lineWe back Over 3.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.