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Betting tips › J1 League ›  Shimizu S-Pulse v Gamba Osaka

 J1 LeagueSat 17 Oct 04:00 UTCIAI Stadium Nihondaira

Shimizu S-Pulse v Gamba Osaka tips

SHIShimizu S-PulseWWLDL
VS
GAMGamba OsakaLLLDD
The model callShimizu S-PulseMatch result2.25★★★★2 stars

Shimizu S Pulse return to their home ground with better recent form than Gamba Osaka. The odds offer a fair price on a home win given the visitors struggle badly.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$45
Profit$25
Why it might land
  • Shimizu S Pulse come into this match holding two wins from their last five outings which gives them decent momentum compared to their opponents.
  • The bookmakers offer a reasonable price of 2.25 for Shimizu S Pulse to win this fixture at the IAI Stadium Nihondaira.
  • Gamba Osaka travel to this ground on a very poor run of form having failed to win any of their last five matches.
Why it might not
  • Shimizu S Pulse have also suffered two defeats and a draw in their last five fixtures showing they remain vulnerable at the back.
  • Gamba Osaka might find some improvement despite their losses after picking up two consecutive draws in their most recent outings.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both sides show enough inconsistency in recent results to suggest neither defence will keep a clean sheet here.

Total goalsOver 2.5 goalsPrice varies by book

We have no prices for the goal lines so backing totals is pure guesswork based purely on erratic defensive form.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Shimizu S-Pulse the side to beat here at 42%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Shimizu S-Pulse, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Shimizu S Pulse return to their home ground with better recent form than Gamba Osaka. The odds offer a fair price on a home win given the visitors struggle badly.

Form and momentum

Shimizu S-Pulse come in patchy, winning 38% of 8 on record. 2 of their 5 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 2 wins in a row.

Gamba Osaka come in poor, winning 0% of 7 on record. 0 of their 4 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 3 losss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 42% for SHI, 27% for the draw and 31% for GAM once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Shimizu S-Pulse, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 2.25, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Shimizu S Pulse have also suffered two defeats and a draw in their last five fixtures showing they remain vulnerable at the back.
  • Gamba Osaka might find some improvement despite their losses after picking up two consecutive draws in their most recent outings.
The bottom line

We back Shimizu S-Pulse for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsSHI +125
SHI2.25draw3.45GAM3.05

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

SHIShimizu S-Pulse8 games on record
Won3
Drawn1
Lost4
  • Scored6and let in8
  • At home2 winsfrom5
  • Right now2 wins in a row
Last fiveWWLDL
GAMGamba Osaka7 games on record
Won0
Drawn3
Lost4
  • Scored4and let in11
  • On the roadno winsfrom4
  • Right now3 losss in a row
Last fiveLLLDD

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Shimizu v Gamba Osaka, who wins this one?

The site model goes for Shimizu S Pulse at 2.25 because they return home with better recent form against struggling visitors. They have still lost two and drawn one of their last five though so the de...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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