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Betting tips › Bundesliga ›  Schalke 04 v Mainz

 BundesligaSat 17 Oct 13:30 UTCVeltins Arena

Schalke 04 v Mainz tips

S04Schalke 04DWDL
VS
M05MainzWLWDW
The model callOver 2.5Total goals1.59★★★★2 stars

Mainz arrive in stronger shape with three wins from five matches, but Schalke can still find the net at home. The price on goals looks solid given both teams recent scoring form.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$31.8
Profit$11.8
Why it might land
  • Mainz come into this fixture on a strong run after taking three wins and a draw from their last five outings in the league.
  • Schalke have been hard to beat at home recently despite a mixed overall form guide that includes two draws and a win.
  • The odds for goals offer a fair price with the over line set at 1.59 based on typical scoring patterns in these matches.
Why it might not
  • Schalke managed only one win in their last four outings and suffered a defeat which leaves some doubt over their attack.
  • Mainz did lose one of their recent matches and might struggle to dominate completely away from their own stadium.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both sides have shown enough scoring capability in their recent runs to find the net.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Mainz the side to beat here at 41%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Over 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Mainz arrive in stronger shape with three wins from five matches, but Schalke can still find the net at home. The price on goals looks solid given both teams recent scoring form.

Form and momentum

Schalke 04 come in poor, winning 25% of 4 on record. 0 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.

Mainz come in patchy, winning 32% of 38 on record. 8 of their 19 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 32% for S04, 27% for the draw and 41% for M05 once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.59, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Schalke managed only one win in their last four outings and suffered a defeat which leaves some doubt over their attack.
  • Mainz did lose one of their recent matches and might struggle to dominate completely away from their own stadium.
The bottom line

We back Over 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceBet365
S042.90draw3.60M052.15
SourceDraftKingsM05 +120
S042.85draw3.35M052.20

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

S04Schalke 044 games on record
Won1
Drawn2
Lost1
  • Scored3and let in4
  • At home0 winsfrom2
  • Right now1 draw in a row
Last fiveDWDL
M05Mainz38 games on record
Won12
Drawn11
Lost15
  • Scored54and let in59
  • On the road8 winsfrom19
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLWDW

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Schalke versus Mainz, value in the draw?

The site model likes the draw here. Mainz have three wins from five but Schalke can score at home so goals seem likely. Schalke have only one win in four and their attack looks shaky. What are you lot...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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