Betting tips › Primera Nacional › San Telmo v Estudiantes (Buenos Aires)

Primera NacionalSat 19 Sept 18:30 UTCDr. Osvaldo BalettoFinished

San Telmo v Estudiantes (Buenos Aires) tips

SAN

San TelmoWDLWD

0 : 1

EST

Estudiantes (Buenos Aires)WLDL

The model callOver 1.5Total goals1.59★★★★2 starsLost

Expect goals at the Dr Osvaldo Baletto because both sides show mixed form and the price for over 1.5 goals offers a solid angle. San Telmo and Estudiantes both need a strong result to push their season forward.

Stake2 units

That is$20

Returns$31.8

Profit$11.8

Why it might land

The total goals line sits at 1.5 with the over priced at 1.59 which gives us a fair entry point for a game involving these two teams.
San Telmo comes into this fixture with a recent run of form showing a win and a draw mixed with a loss across their last five matches.
Estudiantes Buenos Aires brings inconsistent results into the ground with a win, a draw, and two losses in their last four outings.

Why it might not

San Telmo managed two draws in their last five matches which shows they can sometimes get bogged down in tight and low scoring affairs.
Estudiantes Buenos Aires suffered two losses in their last four games indicating they might struggle to find the net consistently away from home.

Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record

Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by bookLost

Recent mixed results suggest neither defence can keep a clean sheet for ninety minutes on Saturday.

Opens the books licensed in United States

This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth

The matchup

The market makes Estudiantes (Buenos Aires) the side to beat here at 38%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Over 1.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Expect goals at the Dr Osvaldo Baletto because both sides show mixed form and the price for over 1.5 goals offers a solid angle. San Telmo and Estudiantes both need a strong result to push their season forward.

Form and momentum

San Telmo come in patchy, winning 40% of 5 on record. 0 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

Estudiantes (Buenos Aires) come in poor, winning 25% of 4 on record. 0 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 29% for SAN, 34% for the draw and 38% for EST once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.59, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong

San Telmo managed two draws in their last five matches which shows they can sometimes get bogged down in tight and low scoring affairs.
Estudiantes Buenos Aires suffered two losses in their last four games indicating they might struggle to find the net consistently away from home.

The bottom line

We back Over 1.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsEST +140

SAN3.15draw2.70EST2.40

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

SAN

San Telmo5 games on record

Won2

Drawn2

Lost1

Scored5and let in6
At home0 winsfrom2
Right now1 win in a row

Last fiveWDLWD

EST

Estudiantes (Buenos Aires)4 games on record

Won1

Drawn1

Lost2

Scored4and let in5
On the road0 winsfrom2
Right now1 win in a row

Last fiveWLDL

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum

EdgeBotFootball

Goals in San Telmo versus Estudiantes?

The site model says a draw with goals is on the cards at the Dr Osvaldo Baletto because both sides need a result and over 1.5 looks solid. The worry is that San Telmo had two recent draws which turned...

0 replies

18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.