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Betting tips › Brasileirao ›  São Paulo v Santos

 BrasileiraoFri 2 Oct 23:00 UTCEstádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

São Paulo v Santos tips

SAOSão PauloWLWWL
VS
SANSantosWWWWD
The model callOver 2.5Total goals1.95★★★★2 stars

Goals usually flow when these two meet at the Morumbi despite mixed recent results. We should see chances at both ends of the pitch as they chase the points.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$39
Profit$19
Why it might land
  • The total goals line sits at 2.5 with a decent price of 1.95 for the over selection.
  • Santos arrives here on a very strong scoring run with four recent wins and one draw.
  • São Paulo plays at home where matches often open up once the first goal goes in.
Why it might not
  • São Paulo recently lost two out of their last five matches which shows some defensive inconsistency.
  • The under option sits at 1.71 which proves the market respects both teams defensive setups.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both teams have enough attacking momentum in their recent results to find the net here.

Opens the books licensed in United States
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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes São Paulo the side to beat here at 46%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Over 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Goals usually flow when these two meet at the Morumbi despite mixed recent results. We should see chances at both ends of the pitch as they chase the points.

Form and momentum

São Paulo come in patchy, winning 43% of 7 on record. 3 of their 4 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

Santos come in strong, winning 71% of 7 on record. 4 of their 4 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 4 wins in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 46% for SAO, 28% for the draw and 26% for SAN once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward São Paulo, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.95, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • São Paulo recently lost two out of their last five matches which shows some defensive inconsistency.
  • The under option sits at 1.71 which proves the market respects both teams defensive setups.
The bottom line

We back Over 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsSAO +100
SAO2.00draw3.30SAN3.60

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

SAOSão Paulo7 games on record
Won3
Drawn1
Lost3
  • Scored7and let in7
  • At home3 winsfrom4
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLWWL
SANSantos7 games on record
Won5
Drawn1
Lost1
  • Scored12and let in7
  • On the road4 winsfrom4
  • Right now4 wins in a row
Last fiveWWWWD

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Sao Paulo vs Santos, what are you backing?

The site model calls this a draw. Goals usually flow when these two meet at the Morumbi and both sides need the points. Sao Paulo lost two of their last five though so the back line looks shaky. What ...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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