The matchupThe market makes Platense the side to beat here at 43%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Over 1.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Newell's arrive in decent scoring form while Platense need a response after recent defeats. Backing over one point five goals looks sensible at the current price.
Form and momentumPlatense come in patchy, winning 33% of 6 on record. 0 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
Newell's Old Boys come in patchy, winning 33% of 6 on record. 0 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 3 draws in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 43% for PLA, 32% for the draw and 25% for NOB once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Platense, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.50, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Platense have only managed one victory alongside two draws and two defeats across their last five matches in the competition.
- Newell's Old Boys recorded three consecutive draws prior to their recent winning run which points to some cagey tactical displays.
The bottom lineWe back Over 1.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.