The matchupThe market makes Parma the side to beat here at 34%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Draw, and it backs that with a 1 unit stake. The bookmakers cannot split these two sides and neither can I. An early season clash at the Tardini often ends with shared points.
Form and momentumParma come in poor, winning 28% of 40 on record. 5 of their 21 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 3 losss in a row.
Monza come in patchy, winning 33% of 3 on record. 1 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 34% for PAR, 32% for the draw and 34% for MON once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.95, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Home advantage at the Tardini could push Parma over the line.
- Monza have enough attacking quality to snatch all three points away.
The bottom lineWe back Draw for 1 unit. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.