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Betting tips › Serie B ›  Padova v Carrarese

 Serie BSun 11 Oct 15:15 UTCEuganeo

Padova v Carrarese tips

PADPadovaLWLDW
VS
CARCarrareseLLLDL
The model callPadovaMatch result1.91★★★★2 stars

Padova should have enough at home against a struggling Carrarese side. The visitors cannot buy a win right now.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$38.2
Profit$18.2
Why it might land
  • Padova are playing at home on their own turf and come into this match holding a decent mix of recent results including two wins.
  • Carrarese arrive at the Euganeo in dreadful form after suffering four defeats across their last five matches in the league.
  • The bookmakers offer a fair price of 1.91 for a home win which gives us enough value to back Padova here.
Why it might not
  • Padova lost their most recent match which brings a lingering doubt about their consistency over ninety minutes.
  • Carrarese managed a draw recently so they can occasionally frustrate opponents when they desperately need a point.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Given the shaky recent defensive records on both sides we should see goals at both ends.

Total goalsOver 2.5 goalsPrice 1.80

The over line at 1.80 looks tempting because both defenses can leak goals.

Opens the books licensed in United States
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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Padova the side to beat here at 49%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Padova, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Padova should have enough at home against a struggling Carrarese side. The visitors cannot buy a win right now.

Form and momentum

Padova come in patchy, winning 40% of 5 on record. 1 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

Carrarese come in poor, winning 0% of 5 on record. 0 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 3 losss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 49% for PAD, 27% for the draw and 24% for CAR once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Padova, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.91, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Padova lost their most recent match which brings a lingering doubt about their consistency over ninety minutes.
  • Carrarese managed a draw recently so they can occasionally frustrate opponents when they desperately need a point.
The bottom line

We back Padova for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsPAD -110
PAD1.91draw3.40CAR3.85

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

PADPadova5 games on record
Won2
Drawn1
Lost2
  • Scored5and let in6
  • At home1 winsfrom2
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLWLDW
CARCarrarese5 games on record
Won0
Drawn1
Lost4
  • Scored2and let in6
  • On the roadno winsfrom2
  • Right now3 losss in a row
Last fiveLLLDL

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Padova v Carrarese, will home form win?

The site model goes for Padova at 1.91 because Carrarese cannot buy a win right now. Padova lost their last match though and that brings some doubt about their ninety minute consistency. What are othe...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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