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Betting tips › Liga Profesional ›  Newell's Old Boys v Lanús

 Liga ProfesionalSat 3 Oct 20:00 UTCMarcelo Bielsa

Newell's Old Boys v Lanús tips

NOBNewell's Old BoysWDDDW
VS
LANLanúsWWWLD
The model callLanúsMatch result2.60★★★★2 stars

Lanús are in better form with three wins in their last five games. They offer better value than Newell's despite the home advantage for the hosts.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$52
Profit$32
Why it might land
  • Lanús enter this match with three wins in their last five games while Newell's have only managed two wins during the exact same period of recent matches.
  • The price of 2.60 for an away win represents real value given that Lanús have been more consistent than their opponents over the last five weeks of play.
  • Newell's have struggled to convert draws into wins lately as they have recorded three draws in their last five games which shows a lack of killer instinct.
Why it might not
  • Newell's remain a difficult side to beat at the Marcelo Bielsa ground because they have managed to remain unbeaten in their last five league matches played recently.
  • The market reflects a very tight contest with the home side priced at 2.80 and the draw at 2.95 which suggests the bookmakers expect a very close game.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

These sides have both been finding the net regularly enough in their recent five game sequences to expect goals from both teams at the ground.

Total goalsOver 1.5 goalsPrice 1.51

Both sides have shown enough attacking intent in their recent runs to suggest two goals is well within reach at the 1.51 price.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Lanús the side to beat here at 36%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Lanús, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Lanús are in better form with three wins in their last five games. They offer better value than Newell's despite the home advantage for the hosts.

Form and momentum

Newell's Old Boys come in patchy, winning 43% of 7 on record. 2 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

Lanús come in solid, winning 57% of 7 on record. 2 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 3 wins in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 33% for NOB, 31% for the draw and 36% for LAN once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.60, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Newell's remain a difficult side to beat at the Marcelo Bielsa ground because they have managed to remain unbeaten in their last five league matches played recently.
  • The market reflects a very tight contest with the home side priced at 2.80 and the draw at 2.95 which suggests the bookmakers expect a very close game.
The bottom line

We back Lanús for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsLAN +160
NOB2.80draw2.95LAN2.60

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

NOBNewell's Old Boys7 games on record
Won3
Drawn3
Lost1
  • Scored8and let in5
  • At home2 winsfrom3
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWDDDW
LANLanús7 games on record
Won4
Drawn1
Lost2
  • Scored11and let in6
  • On the road2 winsfrom3
  • Right now3 wins in a row
Last fiveWWWLD

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Newell's v Lanus, who are you backing?

The site model goes for Lanus at 2.60 because they have won three of their last five matches and look good value. Newell's are tough to beat at home though and they are unbeaten in their last five lea...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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