The matchupThe market makes Nacional Asunción the side to beat here at 52%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Nacional Asunción, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Nacional Asunción are in great form with four wins from their last five matches and play at home here. 2 de Mayo put up a fight but Nacional look too strong at one point seven four.
Form and momentumNacional Asunción come in strong, winning 80% of 5 on record. 2 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
2 de Mayo come in patchy, winning 40% of 5 on record. 2 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 52% for NAC, 28% for the draw and 20% for MAY once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Nacional Asunción, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.74, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- The visitors managed to pick up two draws in their last five fixtures which proves they can frustrate stronger opponents.
- Two de Mayo also grabbed a win and another positive result recently so they arrive with some resilience in their squad.
The bottom lineWe back Nacional Asunción for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.