The matchupThe market makes Almere City the side to beat here at 44%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Almere City, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Almere City travels to De Geusselt with solid form despite a recent stumble. MVV Maastricht is playing well too but the visitors look stronger.
Form and momentumMVV Maastricht come in strong, winning 80% of 5 on record. 2 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
Almere City come in strong, winning 60% of 5 on record. 2 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 32% for MVV, 24% for the draw and 44% for ALM once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Almere City, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 2.00, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- MVV Maastricht won four of their last five matches in great style.
- Playing away at De Geusselt is always a tough task for anyone.
The bottom lineWe back Almere City for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.