The matchupThe market makes Mirassol the side to beat here at 44%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Mirassol, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Mirassol hold a solid run of form coming into this fixture at their home ground. Internacional look shaky after picking up three losses in their last five matches.
Form and momentumMirassol come in poor, winning 25% of 8 on record. 1 of their 4 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
Internacional come in poor, winning 14% of 7 on record. 1 of their 4 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 44% for MIR, 28% for the draw and 28% for INT once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Mirassol, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 2.15, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Mirassol were held to a draw in two of their recent five matches and could struggle to break down a determined defensive block.
- Internacional managed a win away from home recently and might find the breakthrough needed to snatch a draw on the road.
The bottom lineWe back Mirassol for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.