The matchupThe market makes Criciúma the side to beat here at 36%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Under 2.5, and it backs that with a 1 unit stake. This match looks tight on paper with both sides showing patchy form recently. Taking under two point five goals at one point five seven feels safer than picking a winner.
Form and momentumLondrina come in poor, winning 25% of 8 on record. 1 of their 5 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 2 losss in a row.
Criciúma come in poor, winning 25% of 8 on record. 0 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 34% for LON, 29% for the draw and 36% for CRI once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.57, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Criciuma did manage to win their most recent match which could give them some momentum coming away from home.
- Londrina won two matches in their recent five game run showing they can find the net when needed.
The bottom lineWe back Under 2.5 for 1 unit. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.