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Betting tips › Categoria Primera A ›  Llaneros FC v Independiente Santa Fe

 Categoria Primera ASun 18 Oct 22:45 UTCEstadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pele

Llaneros FC v Independiente Santa Fe tips

LLALlaneros FCLWLLL
VS
SFEIndependiente Santa FeLWWDW
The model callIndependiente Santa FeMatch result2.50★★★★2 stars

Independiente Santa Fe bring much better recent form into this match than their hosts. Llaneros FC are struggling badly after picking up four defeats from their last five outings.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$50
Profit$30
Why it might land
  • Independiente Santa Fe arrive with three wins and a draw from their last five matches which shows clear momentum.
  • Llaneros FC are in a terrible run of form having lost four of their last five matches in the league.
  • The bookmakers offer a decent price of 2.50 for the away win given the stark contrast in recent results.
Why it might not
  • Playing away at Estadio Bello Horizonte is always a tricky task despite the poor form of the home side.
  • Independiente Santa Fe suffered a defeat in their most recent fixture which introduces some doubt about their consistency.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both defenses show enough vulnerability in their recent outings to suggest goals at both ends.

Total goalsOver 2.5 goalsPrice varies by book

We cannot price the exact line accurately from the limited data provided so this is a pure guess.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Independiente Santa Fe the side to beat here at 36%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Independiente Santa Fe, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Independiente Santa Fe bring much better recent form into this match than their hosts. Llaneros FC are struggling badly after picking up four defeats from their last five outings.

Form and momentum

Llaneros FC come in poor, winning 25% of 8 on record. 1 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

Independiente Santa Fe come in patchy, winning 43% of 7 on record. 1 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 34% for LLA, 30% for the draw and 36% for SFE once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.50, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Playing away at Estadio Bello Horizonte is always a tricky task despite the poor form of the home side.
  • Independiente Santa Fe suffered a defeat in their most recent fixture which introduces some doubt about their consistency.
The bottom line

We back Independiente Santa Fe for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsSFE +150
LLA2.70draw3.00SFE2.50

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

LLALlaneros FC8 games on record
Won2
Drawn1
Lost5
  • Scored9and let in12
  • At home1 winsfrom3
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLWLLL
SFEIndependiente Santa Fe7 games on record
Won3
Drawn3
Lost1
  • Scored11and let in7
  • On the road1 winsfrom2
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLWWDW

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Santa Fe or Llaneros tonight?

The site model goes for Independiente Santa Fe because they have won four of their last five while Llaneros are struggling badly. However playing away at Estadio Bello Horizonte is always a tricky tas...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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