The matchupThe market makes Livingston the side to beat here at 49%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Livingston, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Livingston look the stronger side for this fixture at the Tony Macaroni Arena because their recent results show they are finding wins while Inverness struggle to pick up three points. The prices give fair value on the home team despite both sides suffering defeats lately.
Form and momentumLivingston come in solid, winning 50% of 4 on record. 1 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
Inverness Caledonian Thistle come in poor, winning 20% of 5 on record. 1 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 49% for LIV, 27% for the draw and 25% for ICT once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Livingston, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.91, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Livingston also suffered two defeats in their last four outings which shows they can be vulnerable against determined opponents.
- Inverness managed a win recently which demonstrates they are capable of causing trouble if they find their best form on the day.
The bottom lineWe back Livingston for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.