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Betting tips › Premier League ›  Leeds United v Newcastle United

 Premier LeagueMon 14 Sept 19:00 UTCElland RoadFinished

Leeds United v Newcastle United tips

LEELeeds UnitedLDDWW
4 : 1
NEWNewcastle UnitedWDWWD
The model callDrawMatch result3.45★★★★2 starsLost

Both sides look pretty evenly matched based on their recent run of results. A tight game under the lights at Elland Road feels likely here.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$69
Profit$49
Why it might land
  • Leeds look steady enough at home to hold their own against anyone
  • Newcastle have struggled to put together a consistent winning run lately too
  • The odds suggest there is very little to separate these two clubs
Why it might not
  • Leeds have picked up two draws recently and might struggle to win
  • The price on the home win is short for such a contest
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by bookWon

Leeds are at home and Newcastle have enough quality to trouble any defence.

Total goalsOver 2.5 goalsPrice 1.77Won

Both sides have shown they can find the net recently despite some inconsistent results.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Leeds United the side to beat here at 41%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Draw, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Both sides look pretty evenly matched based on their recent run of results. A tight game under the lights at Elland Road feels likely here.

Form and momentum

Leeds United come in poor, winning 30% of 40 on record. 8 of their 18 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

Newcastle United come in patchy, winning 43% of 40 on record. 7 of their 20 away games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 41% for LEE, 27% for the draw and 32% for NEW once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 3.45, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

When these two meet

Across 2 past meetings NEW have had the better of it, 1 wins to 0, with 1 drawn. Squads change, so read it as colour rather than proof.

Where it could go wrong
  • Leeds have picked up two draws recently and might struggle to win
  • The price on the home win is short for such a contest
The bottom line

We back Draw for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceBet365
LEE2.30draw3.50NEW3.00
SourceDraftKingsLEE +135
LEE2.35draw3.55NEW2.95

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

LEELeeds United40 games on record
Won12
Drawn15
Lost13
  • Scored56and let in59
  • At home8 winsfrom18
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLDDWW
NEWNewcastle United40 games on record
Won17
Drawn9
Lost14
  • Scored71and let in63
  • On the road7 winsfrom20
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWDWWD

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

Head to head

When these two have met

0LEE wins
1drawn
1NEW wins
  • Newcastle United 4 : 3 Leeds United7 Jan 2026 · Premier League
  • Leeds United 0 : 0 Newcastle United30 Aug 2025 · Premier League

Old meetings are worth less than they look. Squads change, managers change, and a result from two seasons ago tells you almost nothing about this one.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Leeds v Newcastle: anyone else fancy a draw?

Both teams look evenly matched on recent form and a tight game at Elland Road is expected under the lights. The main worry is that Leeds picked up two draws lately and might struggle to turn one point...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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