The matchupThe market makes Bologna the side to beat here at 49%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Under 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Bologna struggle for wins and goals right now while Lecce trade wins with defeats. Expect a tight low scoring game at the Via Del Mare.
Form and momentumLecce come in poor, winning 30% of 40 on record. 6 of their 20 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
Bologna come in patchy, winning 38% of 40 on record. 10 of their 19 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 23% for LEC, 28% for the draw and 49% for BOL once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Bologna, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.77, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
When these two meetAcross 2 past meetings BOL have had the better of it, 1 wins to 0, with 1 drawn. Squads change, so read it as colour rather than proof.
Where it could go wrong- Lecce play at home on this ground where surprises can happen despite their inconsistent sequence of recent results.
- Bologna sit as favourites priced at 1.87 to win which suggests the away side could suddenly find their scoring touch.
The bottom lineWe back Under 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.