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Betting tips › Primera Division ›  La Serena v Deportes Concepcion

 Primera DivisionSun 25 Oct 18:00 UTCEstadio La Portada

La Serena v Deportes Concepcion tips

LSELa SerenaLWWD
VS
CONDeportes ConcepcionDLWD
The model callLa SerenaMatch result2.30★★★★1 star

La Serena play at home against Deportes Concepcion and they look slightly more reliable. The price of 2.30 offers some appeal even though recent results show mixed form for both sides.

Stake1 unit
That is$10
Returns$23
Profit$13
Why it might land
  • La Serena return to Estadio La Portada after picking up two wins and a draw from their last four matches in the league.
  • Deportes Concepcion travel after a mixed run of form that includes a recent loss and two draws in their last four fixtures.
  • The bookmakers offer La Serena at a backable price of 2.30 to win this match in front of their own supporters.
Why it might not
  • La Serena most recently suffered a defeat which shows they are certainly capable of slipping up when least expected.
  • Deportes Concepcion managed to avoid defeat in three of their last four outings and could easily frustrate the hosts here.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both teams have traded results and leaked goals frequently enough across their last four games.

Total goalsUnder 2.5 goalsPrice varies by book

Neither side has shown a consistent knack for heavy scoring in their recent matches.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes La Serena the side to beat here at 40%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on La Serena, and it backs that with a 1 unit stake. La Serena play at home against Deportes Concepcion and they look slightly more reliable. The price of 2.30 offers some appeal even though recent results show mixed form for both sides.

Form and momentum

La Serena come in solid, winning 50% of 4 on record. 1 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

Deportes Concepcion come in poor, winning 25% of 4 on record. 1 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 40% for LSE, 28% for the draw and 31% for CON once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.30, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • La Serena most recently suffered a defeat which shows they are certainly capable of slipping up when least expected.
  • Deportes Concepcion managed to avoid defeat in three of their last four outings and could easily frustrate the hosts here.
The bottom line

We back La Serena for 1 unit. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsLSE +130
LSE2.30draw3.30CON2.95

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

LSELa Serena4 games on record
Won2
Drawn1
Lost1
  • Scored6and let in7
  • At home1 winsfrom3
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLWWD
CONDeportes Concepcion4 games on record
Won1
Drawn2
Lost1
  • Scored3and let in3
  • On the road1 winsfrom2
  • Right now1 draw in a row
Last fiveDLWD

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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