The matchupThe market makes Aris the side to beat here at 40%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Aris, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Aris arrive with back to back wins that point them past a shaky Kifisia side. The away price of 2.30 gives us enough room to back the visitors on Sunday.
Form and momentumKifisia come in poor, winning 20% of 5 on record. 0 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
Aris come in patchy, winning 40% of 5 on record. 1 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 32% for KIF, 28% for the draw and 40% for ARI once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.30, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Aris suffered two defeats just before their latest winning run which shows they can be vulnerable on the road.
- Kifisia managed to draw two of their last five matches including a recent stalemate that proves they can frustrate opponents.
The bottom lineWe back Aris for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.