The matchupThe market makes Fulham the side to beat here at 37%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Over 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Expect goals at Portman Road this Saturday afternoon because the price on the over catches the eye. Both sides arrive with recent defensive struggles in their respective runs of form.
Form and momentumIpswich Town come in solid, winning 55% of 40 on record. 13 of their 21 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 2 losss in a row.
Fulham come in patchy, winning 38% of 40 on record. 5 of their 20 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 36% for IPS, 27% for the draw and 37% for FUL once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.74, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Ipswich Town have struggled to find consistent scoring form during a recent run that includes four losses in their previous five fixtures.
- Fulham have only managed one victory from their last five league outings which makes backing a high scoring game slightly risky.
The bottom lineWe back Over 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.