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Betting tips › Categoria Primera A ›  Independiente Medellín v Millonarios

 Categoria Primera AWed 30 Sept 01:05 UTCAtanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellín v Millonarios tips

DIMIndependiente MedellínLWDLW
VS
MILMillonariosDWWDD
The model callIndependiente MedellínMatch result2.25★★★★2 stars

Independiente Medellin play at the Atanasio Girardot and hold a price of 2.25 to beat Millonarios. Their recent mixed form still gives them the edge over visiting opponents who have drawn three of their last five matches.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$45
Profit$25
Why it might land
  • Independiente Medellin return to their home ground at the Atanasio Girardot where local support always pushes them forward.
  • The bookmakers offer a fair price of 2.25 for Independiente Medellin to take all three points against Millonarios on Wednesday.
  • Millonarios have struggled to turn draws into wins lately after recording three stalemates across their last five matches.
Why it might not
  • Independiente Medellin have blown hot and cold recently with two losses mixed into their last five matches.
  • Millonarios arrive with an unbeaten five match run of form that includes two wins and three draws.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both teams to score looks likely as the visitors have shown enough attacking intent in their recent matches to trouble the hosts.

Total goalsOver 2.5 goalsPrice 1.87

The total goals line sits at 2.5 with the over priced at 1.87 because both sides are capable of finding the net.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Independiente Medellín the side to beat here at 41%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Independiente Medellín, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Independiente Medellin play at the Atanasio Girardot and hold a price of 2.25 to beat Millonarios. Their recent mixed form still gives them the edge over visiting opponents who have drawn three of their last five matches.

Form and momentum

Independiente Medellín come in patchy, winning 43% of 7 on record. 2 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

Millonarios come in patchy, winning 33% of 9 on record. 2 of their 6 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 41% for DIM, 29% for the draw and 31% for MIL once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.25, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Independiente Medellin have blown hot and cold recently with two losses mixed into their last five matches.
  • Millonarios arrive with an unbeaten five match run of form that includes two wins and three draws.
The bottom line

We back Independiente Medellín for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsDIM +125
DIM2.25draw3.20MIL2.95

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

DIMIndependiente Medellín7 games on record
Won3
Drawn1
Lost3
  • Scored10and let in9
  • At home2 winsfrom3
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLWDLW
MILMillonarios9 games on record
Won3
Drawn5
Lost1
  • Scored13and let in8
  • On the road2 winsfrom6
  • Right now1 draw in a row
Last fiveDWWDD

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Medellin to beat Millonarios at home?

The site model goes for Independiente Medellin at 2.25 on home turf given Millonarios draw too many on the road. The catch is that Medellin blew it twice in their last five outings. What are you lot b...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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