The matchupThe market makes Hertha Berlin the side to beat here at 53%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Hertha Berlin, and it backs that with a 3 units stake. Hertha Berlin come into this match in fantastic form and should prove too strong for Arminia Bielefeld. The price on the home win looks very fair given the recent results.
Form and momentumHertha Berlin come in strong, winning 100% of 5 on record. 2 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 5 wins in a row.
Arminia Bielefeld come in poor, winning 17% of 6 on record. 0 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 53% for BSC, 23% for the draw and 24% for DSC once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Hertha Berlin, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.77, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Arminia Bielefeld did manage to secure a win in their most recent outing which shows they can still pose a threat.
- Away fixtures in this division are always difficult and Bielefeld will be fighting hard to avoid another defeat.
The bottom lineWe back Hertha Berlin for 3 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.