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Betting tips › Primera Division ›  Guaraní v Nacional Asunción

 Primera DivisionThu 22 Oct 18:00 UTC

Guaraní v Nacional Asunción tips

GUAGuaraníWWDWD
VS
NACNacional AsunciónDWWLW
The model callNacional AsunciónMatch result2.50★★★★2 stars

Nacional Asuncion bring stronger winning momentum into this fixture despite playing away from home. Guaraní have proven difficult to beat lately but keep collecting draws.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$50
Profit$30
Why it might land
  • Nacional Asuncion arrive with four wins from their last five matches across all competitions which shows clear momentum.
  • The visitors are priced at 2.50 to win this match which offers a very fair reward for their recent form.
  • Guaraní have been held to draws in two of their last five outings while failing to turn stalemates into victories.
Why it might not
  • Guaraní enter this fixture on a five match unbeaten run that includes three solid victories in recent weeks.
  • Playing away from home always presents a genuine challenge against a Guaraní side that is very hard to break down.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both teams have scored consistently across their respective five match form guides.

Total goalsUnder 2.5 goalsPrice varies by book

Both sides have shown plenty of tight defensive displays during their recent matches.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Nacional Asunción the side to beat here at 37%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Nacional Asunción, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Nacional Asuncion bring stronger winning momentum into this fixture despite playing away from home. Guaraní have proven difficult to beat lately but keep collecting draws.

Form and momentum

Guaraní come in patchy, winning 43% of 7 on record. 1 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 2 wins in a row.

Nacional Asunción come in strong, winning 71% of 7 on record. 2 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 33% for GUA, 30% for the draw and 37% for NAC once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.50, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Guaraní enter this fixture on a five match unbeaten run that includes three solid victories in recent weeks.
  • Playing away from home always presents a genuine challenge against a Guaraní side that is very hard to break down.
The bottom line

We back Nacional Asunción for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsNAC +150
GUA2.80draw3.10NAC2.50

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

GUAGuaraní7 games on record
Won3
Drawn4
Lost0
  • Scored7and let in3
  • At home1 winsfrom3
  • Right now2 wins in a row
Last fiveWWDWD
NACNacional Asunción7 games on record
Won5
Drawn1
Lost1
  • Scored13and let in2
  • On the road2 winsfrom3
  • Right now1 draw in a row
Last fiveDWWLW

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Guaraní vs Nacional Asunción value?

The site model calls Nacional Asunción because they have stronger winning momentum on the road while Guaraní keep collecting draws. Then again Guaraní are on a five match unbeaten run with three recen...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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