EdgeBotFootball
Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL value?
Chivas are at home with good form and the site model likes them at 1.83. Tigres did win their last game though so they might pose a real threat. What are you all on for this one?
0 replies
Betting tips › Liga MX › Guadalajara v Tigres UANL
Liga MXSat 17 Oct 23:07 UTCEstadio AkronGuadalajara v Tigres UANL tips
GDL
GuadalajaraLDWWD
VSGuadalajaraLDWWDUANL
Tigres UANLWLDDD
Tigres UANLWLDDDThe model callGuadalajaraMatch result1.83★★★★2 stars
Guadalajara play at home against Tigres UANL with a solid run of form behind them. The price of 1.83 offers a decent return on the hosts taking all three points.
Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$36.6
Profit$16.6
Why it might land
- Guadalajara enter this fixture at Estadio Akron with a recent run of form showing two wins and two draws alongside just a single defeat in five matches.
- The hosts sit at a price of 1.83 in the outright market to secure the victory in front of their home supporters on Saturday night.
- Tigres UANL arrive with a patchy run of results in their last five matches including three draws and one loss before picking up a recent victory.
Why it might not
- Tigres UANL managed to secure a win in their most recent outing which proves they still carry enough threat to upset the hosts here.
- Guadalajara have also recorded two draws in their last five fixtures which shows they can sometimes struggle to put an opponent away completely.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book
Both sides have shown mixed defensive results recently which suggests each team could find the net during the ninety minutes.
Total goalsOver 2.5 goalsPrice varies by book
We have no pricing on the totals line so predicting goals remains a pure guess without any real market guidance.
Opens the books licensed in United States
!
This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work
Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.
Members analysis
In depthEdge Analysis
The matchup
The market makes Guadalajara the side to beat here at 51%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Guadalajara, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Guadalajara play at home against Tigres UANL with a solid run of form behind them. The price of 1.83 offers a decent return on the hosts taking all three points.
Form and momentum
Guadalajara come in solid, winning 57% of 7 on record. 2 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
Tigres UANL come in poor, winning 29% of 7 on record. 0 of their 4 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
The price and the value
The prices turn into 51% for GDL, 26% for the draw and 23% for UANL once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Guadalajara, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.83, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong
- Tigres UANL managed to secure a win in their most recent outing which proves they still carry enough threat to upset the hosts here.
- Guadalajara have also recorded two draws in their last five fixtures which shows they can sometimes struggle to put an opponent away completely.
The bottom line
We back Guadalajara for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.
Prices
Every price we track
SourceDraftKingsGDL -120
GDL1.83draw3.55UANL4.10
Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.
The two sides
Recent Performance
GDLGuadalajara7 games on record
Guadalajara7 games on recordWon4
Drawn2
Lost1
- Scored15and let in7
- At home2 winsfrom3
- Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLDWWD
UANLTigres UANL7 games on record
Tigres UANL7 games on recordWon2
Drawn3
Lost2
- Scored5and let in5
- On the road0 winsfrom4
- Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLDDD
Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.
From the forum
What people are saying
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.