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Betting tips › League Two ›  Gillingham v Newport County

 League TwoSat 3 Oct 14:00 UTCPriestfield Stadium

Gillingham v Newport County tips

GILGillinghamLWWWD
VS
NEWNewport CountyWDDLL
The model callGillinghamMatch result2.05★★★★2 stars

Gillingham play at Priestfield Stadium this Saturday and hold the stronger recent league form than Newport County. The home win price of two point zero five offers enough value to back them.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$41
Profit$21
Why it might land
  • Gillingham arrive at this fixture having put together a solid recent run of form that includes three wins from their last five league matches.
  • Newport County travel to Priestfield Stadium after struggling for consistency in their previous outings which yielded two defeats and two draws.
  • Bookmakers offer a price of two point zero five for Gillingham to win which makes them a fair selection based on current league trajectories.
Why it might not
  • Gillingham did stumble slightly in their most recent fixture when they could only manage a draw after their strong winning streak.
  • Newport County showed they can still pull off a victory in their latest game and might prove stubborn opponents away from home.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both teams to score is likely as neither defence has looked entirely secure across their recent five fixtures.

Total goalsOver 2.5 goalsPrice 1.91

Backing over two point five goals at one point nine one makes sense because both sides need points to improve their league standing.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Gillingham the side to beat here at 45%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Gillingham, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Gillingham play at Priestfield Stadium this Saturday and hold the stronger recent league form than Newport County. The home win price of two point zero five offers enough value to back them.

Form and momentum

Gillingham come in patchy, winning 38% of 8 on record. 2 of their 4 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

Newport County come in poor, winning 25% of 8 on record. 0 of their 4 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 45% for GIL, 27% for the draw and 28% for NEW once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Gillingham, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 2.05, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Gillingham did stumble slightly in their most recent fixture when they could only manage a draw after their strong winning streak.
  • Newport County showed they can still pull off a victory in their latest game and might prove stubborn opponents away from home.
The bottom line

We back Gillingham for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsGIL +105
GIL2.05draw3.50NEW3.30

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

GILGillingham8 games on record
Won3
Drawn3
Lost2
  • Scored11and let in9
  • At home2 winsfrom4
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLWWWD
NEWNewport County8 games on record
Won2
Drawn3
Lost3
  • Scored12and let in12
  • On the road0 winsfrom4
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWDDLL

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Gillingham vs Newport County thoughts?

Gillingham play at home this Saturday and hold the stronger recent form. The price of two point zero five looks decent. They did stumble a bit with a draw last time out though. What are you all backin...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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