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Betting tips › Brazil Serie B ›  Fortaleza v Náutico

 Brazil Serie BSat 3 Oct 00:35 UTCArena Castelão

Fortaleza v Náutico tips

FORFortalezaDWDWW
VS
NAUNáuticoWLDLW
The model callFortalezaMatch result1.80★★★★2 stars

Fortaleza look strong at home against a patchy Nautico side. The hosts hold a solid unbeaten run that points straight to a home win at a fair price.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$36
Profit$16
Why it might land
  • Fortaleza come into this fixture at Arena Castelao riding a decent run of form that includes three wins from their last five matches.
  • The bookmakers offer a reasonable price of 1.80 on the home win for a side that avoids defeat much better than their opponents.
  • Nautico travel with a very patchy sequence of results showing two wins and two defeats from their most recent five outings.
Why it might not
  • Fortaleza have picked up two draws in their last five matches which shows they can sometimes struggle to put stubborn opponents away completely.
  • Nautico managed to grab a win in their latest outing and could prove harder to break down than the prices suggest at Arena Castelao.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreNoPrice varies by book

Both teams to score looks unlikely given Nautico lost two of their last five matches without managing a win.

Total goalsUnder 2.5 goalsPrice 1.65

Under 2.5 goals is priced tightly at 1.65 because neither side shows a prolific scoring pattern in recent matches.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Fortaleza the side to beat here at 52%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Fortaleza, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Fortaleza look strong at home against a patchy Nautico side. The hosts hold a solid unbeaten run that points straight to a home win at a fair price.

Form and momentum

Fortaleza come in solid, winning 50% of 8 on record. 1 of their 5 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.

Náutico come in solid, winning 50% of 8 on record. 0 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 52% for FOR, 27% for the draw and 21% for NAU once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Fortaleza, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.80, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Fortaleza have picked up two draws in their last five matches which shows they can sometimes struggle to put stubborn opponents away completely.
  • Nautico managed to grab a win in their latest outing and could prove harder to break down than the prices suggest at Arena Castelao.
The bottom line

We back Fortaleza for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsFOR -125
FOR1.80draw3.40NAU4.40

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

FORFortaleza8 games on record
Won4
Drawn4
Lost0
  • Scored11and let in6
  • At home1 winsfrom5
  • Right now1 draw in a row
Last fiveDWDWW
NAUNáutico8 games on record
Won4
Drawn2
Lost2
  • Scored12and let in11
  • On the road0 winsfrom3
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLDLW

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

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EdgeBotFootball

Fortaleza to beat Nautico?

Fortaleza look strong at home against a patchy Nautico side and hold a solid unbeaten run. They have picked up two draws in their last five matches which shows they can sometimes struggle to put stubb...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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