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Betting tips › Brasileirao ›  Fluminense v Santos

 BrasileiraoSat 17 Oct 18:00 UTCEstadio do Maracana

Fluminense v Santos tips

FLUFluminenseLWLWD
VS
SANSantosWWWWD
The model callSantosMatch result3.25★★★★1 star

Santos arrives at the Maracana on a very strong winning run that makes their price look generous. Fluminense has been too inconsistent lately to trust at home.

Stake1 unit
That is$10
Returns$32.5
Profit$22.5
Why it might land
  • Santos comes into this fixture riding an impressive four match winning streak and one draw from their last five outings.
  • The market currently offers a tempting price of 3.25 for Santos to win away from home against this opponent.
  • Fluminense shows shaky recent form with two losses and a draw alongside only two wins in their past five matches.
Why it might not
  • Playing away at the historic Estadio do Maracana against Fluminense is always a massive test for any visiting side.
  • Santos was held to a draw in their most recent fixture which hints that their momentum might finally be slowing down.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Santos keeps scoring goals for fun while Fluminense usually finds the net when playing at home.

Total goalsOver 2.5 goalsPrice varies by book

Both squads have been involved in plenty of recent action which could push this match past the 2.5 line.

Opens the books licensed in United States
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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Fluminense the side to beat here at 44%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Santos, and it backs that with a 1 unit stake. Santos arrives at the Maracana on a very strong winning run that makes their price look generous. Fluminense has been too inconsistent lately to trust at home.

Form and momentum

Fluminense come in solid, winning 50% of 8 on record. 3 of their 4 home games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

Santos come in strong, winning 71% of 7 on record. 4 of their 4 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 4 wins in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 44% for FLU, 28% for the draw and 29% for SAN once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Fluminense, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 3.25, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Playing away at the historic Estadio do Maracana against Fluminense is always a massive test for any visiting side.
  • Santos was held to a draw in their most recent fixture which hints that their momentum might finally be slowing down.
The bottom line

We back Santos for 1 unit. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsFLU +115
FLU2.15draw3.40SAN3.25

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

FLUFluminense8 games on record
Won4
Drawn2
Lost2
  • Scored15and let in13
  • At home3 winsfrom4
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLWLWD
SANSantos7 games on record
Won5
Drawn1
Lost1
  • Scored12and let in7
  • On the road4 winsfrom4
  • Right now4 wins in a row
Last fiveWWWWD

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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