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Betting tips › USL Championship ›  FC Tulsa v New Mexico United

 USL ChampionshipThu 1 Oct 00:00 UTCONEOK Field

FC Tulsa v New Mexico United tips

TULFC TulsaDDLDW
VS
NMUNew Mexico UnitedLDDDW
The model callOver 2.5Total goals1.69★★★★2 stars

We should back goals here because both sides arrive in mixed defensive form and the price on over 2.5 is very fair. The total line gives us room for a lively game at ONEOK Field.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$33.8
Profit$13.8
Why it might land
  • The total goals line sits at 2.5 with a price of 1.69 for the over to land.
  • FC Tulsa enters this fixture after a mixed run that includes a draw and a win in recent matches.
  • New Mexico United also comes into this game with patchy defensive form shown by three draws and a loss in their last five outings.
Why it might not
  • FC Tulsa has enough draws on their recent results list to suggest they might keep things tight at home.
  • New Mexico United has struggled for clean sheets lately while picking up three draws and one loss across their last five matches.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Both teams have shown enough inconsistency in their recent sequences to suggest defensive lapses are likely.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes FC Tulsa the side to beat here at 48%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Over 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. We should back goals here because both sides arrive in mixed defensive form and the price on over 2.5 is very fair. The total line gives us room for a lively game at ONEOK Field.

Form and momentum

FC Tulsa come in patchy, winning 33% of 6 on record. 1 of their 1 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 2 draws in a row.

New Mexico United come in poor, winning 25% of 8 on record. 1 of their 4 away games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 48% for TUL, 25% for the draw and 26% for NMU once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward FC Tulsa, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.69, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • FC Tulsa has enough draws on their recent results list to suggest they might keep things tight at home.
  • New Mexico United has struggled for clean sheets lately while picking up three draws and one loss across their last five matches.
The bottom line

We back Over 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsTUL -115
TUL1.87draw3.55NMU3.45

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

TULFC Tulsa6 games on record
Won2
Drawn3
Lost1
  • Scored10and let in6
  • At home1 winsfrom1
  • Right now2 draws in a row
Last fiveDDLDW
NMUNew Mexico United8 games on record
Won2
Drawn4
Lost2
  • Scored13and let in13
  • On the road1 winsfrom4
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLDDDW

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Tulsa against New Mexico, goals or a stalemate?

The site model likes over 2.5 goals because both teams have looked shaky at the back recently. The counter is that Tulsa has been drawing plenty of games and might play it safe at home. The model is c...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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