EdgeBotFootball
Benfica at Porto tonight, are they worth 2.45?
Benfica come here on five wins in a row so 2.45 looks big. Porto lost one of their last five and are always tough at home. Our site model calls Benfica. What are you all on?
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Betting tips › Primeira Liga › FC Porto v Benfica
Primeira LigaSun 20 Sept 19:30 UTCEstádio do DragãoFinishedFC Porto v Benfica tips
FCP
FC PortoWLWWW
3 : 1FC PortoWLWWWSLB
BenficaWWWWW
BenficaWWWWWThe model callBenficaMatch result2.45★★★★2 starsLost
Benfica arrive at the Dragao on a flawless five match winning run that makes their price of 2.45 look very generous. FC Porto are strong at home but slipped to a defeat recently among four wins.
Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$49
Profit$29
Why it might land
- Benfica come into this massive fixture having won all of their last five matches in a brilliant run of form.
- The bookmakers offer a very tempting price of 2.45 on the away win given how smoothly Benfica are currently playing.
- FC Porto lost one of their last five matches which shows they are slightly more vulnerable than the visitors right now.
Why it might not
- Playing away at the Estadio do Dragao is always one of the hardest tasks in the entire Portuguese league.
- FC Porto have still managed to win four of their last five matches to prove they remain dangerous opponents.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by bookWon
Two such talented forward lines meeting in this classic rivalry usually produce goals at both ends.
Total goalsOver 2.5 goalsPrice 1.71Won
Both sides score freely and the price of 1.71 for over 2.5 goals reflects that attacking power.
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!
This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work
Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.
Members analysis
In depthEdge Analysis
The matchup
The market makes Benfica the side to beat here at 38%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Benfica, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Benfica arrive at the Dragao on a flawless five match winning run that makes their price of 2.45 look very generous. FC Porto are strong at home but slipped to a defeat recently among four wins.
Form and momentum
FC Porto come in strong, winning 83% of 40 on record. 16 of their 20 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
Benfica come in strong, winning 68% of 40 on record. 14 of their 20 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 6 wins in a row.
The price and the value
The prices turn into 34% for FCP, 28% for the draw and 38% for SLB once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.45, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
When these two meet
These two have been level across 2 past meetings, 0 wins each and 2 drawn. Nothing in the history separates them.
Where it could go wrong
- Playing away at the Estadio do Dragao is always one of the hardest tasks in the entire Portuguese league.
- FC Porto have still managed to win four of their last five matches to prove they remain dangerous opponents.
The bottom line
We back Benfica for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.
Prices
Every price we track
SourceDraftKingsSLB +145
FCP2.70draw3.30SLB2.45
Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.
The two sides
Recent Performance
FCPFC Porto40 games on record
FC Porto40 games on recordWon33
Drawn4
Lost3
- Scored78and let in22
- At home16 winsfrom20
- Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLWWW
SLBBenfica40 games on record
Benfica40 games on recordWon27
Drawn9
Lost4
- Scored93and let in33
- On the road14 winsfrom20
- Right now6 wins in a row
Last fiveWWWWW
Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.
Head to head
When these two have met
0FCP wins
2drawn
0SLB wins
- Benfica 2 : 2 FC Porto8 Mar 2026 · Primeira Liga
- FC Porto 0 : 0 Benfica5 Oct 2025 · Primeira Liga
Old meetings are worth less than they look. Squads change, managers change, and a result from two seasons ago tells you almost nothing about this one.
From the forum
What people are saying
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.