FC Lugano v Red Star Belgrade tips

LUG

FC Lugano

RSB

Red Star Belgrade

The model callOver 2.5Total goals1.65★★★★1 star

We have no prior match records to guide us on current scoring trends for either club. The price of one point six five on goals suggests the market expects a lively contest at the AIL Arena.

Stake1 unit

That is$10

Returns$16.5

Profit$6.5

Why it might land

The bookmakers price the over market at one point six five which implies a strong expectation of goals in this fixture.
Red Star Belgrade travel to the AIL Arena for a Conference League match on Thursday the fifteenth of October.
FC Lugano host this European fixture on home soil where they will try to establish some early group stage momentum.

Why it might not

FC Lugano have no results on record yet to show whether their matches tend to be high scoring affairs.
Red Star Belgrade also show no results on record yet leaving us without any scoring patterns to examine.

Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record

Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

With no historical form to inspect we lean towards both sides finding the net based on general tournament pricing.

Opens the books licensed in United States

This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth

The matchup

The market makes Red Star Belgrade the side to beat here at 39%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Over 2.5, and it backs that with a 1 unit stake. We have no prior match records to guide us on current scoring trends for either club. The price of one point six five on goals suggests the market expects a lively contest at the AIL Arena.

Form and momentum

FC Lugano land here with no settled games on our record yet, so treat their form as an open question.

Red Star Belgrade land here with no settled games on our record yet, so treat their form as an open question.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 35% for LUG, 26% for the draw and 39% for RSB once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.65, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong

FC Lugano have no results on record yet to show whether their matches tend to be high scoring affairs.
Red Star Belgrade also show no results on record yet leaving us without any scoring patterns to examine.

The bottom line

We back Over 2.5 for 1 unit. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsRSB +140

LUG2.65draw3.65RSB2.40

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum

EdgeBotFootball

Lugano or Red Star for the points?

The site model calls this match to end in a draw. The goals price points to a lively game at the AIL Arena. The main worry is that we lack prior results for Lugano to prove if they score often. What a...

0 replies

18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.