The matchupThe market makes Heart of Midlothian the side to beat here at 49%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Heart of Midlothian, and it backs that with a 3 units stake. Heart of Midlothian arrives on a four match winning run and looks far too strong for a Falkirk side struggling for form. The visitors are priced at 1.95 to win which offers solid value given the stark contrast in recent results.
Form and momentumFalkirk come in poor, winning 0% of 4 on record. 0 of their 1 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
Heart of Midlothian come in strong, winning 100% of 4 on record. 1 of their 1 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 4 wins in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 25% for FALK, 25% for the draw and 49% for HOM once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Heart of Midlothian, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.95, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Falkirk has managed to pick up two draws in their last four matches which proves they can occasionally frustrate opponents.
- Playing away from home at the Falkirk Stadium is never entirely straightforward regardless of the recent league standings.
The bottom lineWe back Heart of Midlothian for 3 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.