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Betting tips › Premier League ›  Everton v Chelsea

 Premier LeagueSat 17 Oct 11:30 UTCHill Dickinson Stadium

Everton v Chelsea tips

EVEEvertonWWDDD
VS
CHEChelseaLDWLW
The model callOver 2.5Total goals1.61★★★★2 stars

We should see goals here because the odds on the over are short at 1.61 and both teams bring mixed defensive form into this fixture at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$32.2
Profit$12.2
Why it might land
  • The bookmakers price the over at 1.61 which shows clear market expectation for goals in this fixture.
  • Everton come into this match after picking up three straight draws in their last five outings.
  • Chelsea arrive on the back of alternating results across their previous five matches in the league.
Why it might not
  • Chelsea lost their most recent fixture which might make them set up more cautiously away from home.
  • Everton have also recorded two wins recently which proves they can keep things tight at the back.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Given the mixed recent form for both clubs, both sides should manage to find the net.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Chelsea the side to beat here at 41%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Over 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. We should see goals here because the odds on the over are short at 1.61 and both teams bring mixed defensive form into this fixture at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Form and momentum

Everton come in patchy, winning 38% of 40 on record. 8 of their 21 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 2 wins in a row.

Chelsea come in patchy, winning 38% of 40 on record. 6 of their 20 away games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 34% for EVE, 25% for the draw and 41% for CHE once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.61, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

When these two meet

These two have been level across 2 past meetings, 1 wins each and 0 drawn. Nothing in the history separates them.

Where it could go wrong
  • Chelsea lost their most recent fixture which might make them set up more cautiously away from home.
  • Everton have also recorded two wins recently which proves they can keep things tight at the back.
The bottom line

We back Over 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceBet365
EVE3.10draw3.80CHE2.10
SourceDraftKingsCHE +130
EVE2.75draw3.75CHE2.30

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

EVEEverton40 games on record
Won15
Drawn12
Lost13
  • Scored52and let in48
  • At home8 winsfrom21
  • Right now2 wins in a row
Last fiveWWDDD
CHEChelsea40 games on record
Won15
Drawn9
Lost16
  • Scored65and let in68
  • On the road6 winsfrom20
  • Right now1 loss in a row
Last fiveLDWLW

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

Head to head

When these two have met

1EVE wins
0drawn
1CHE wins
  • Everton 3 : 0 Chelsea21 Mar 2026 · Premier League
  • Chelsea 2 : 0 Everton13 Dec 2025 · Premier League

Old meetings are worth less than they look. Squads change, managers change, and a result from two seasons ago tells you almost nothing about this one.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Everton vs Chelsea: Is the draw the play here?

The site model likes the draw at 3.75. It points to the short price on over 2.5 goals and shaky defences on both sides. Chelsea might play it safe after their last loss though. What are you lot backin...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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