The matchupThe market makes Chelsea the side to beat here at 41%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Over 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. We should see goals here because the odds on the over are short at 1.61 and both teams bring mixed defensive form into this fixture at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Form and momentumEverton come in patchy, winning 38% of 40 on record. 8 of their 21 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 2 wins in a row.
Chelsea come in patchy, winning 38% of 40 on record. 6 of their 20 away games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 34% for EVE, 25% for the draw and 41% for CHE once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.61, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
When these two meetThese two have been level across 2 past meetings, 1 wins each and 0 drawn. Nothing in the history separates them.
Where it could go wrong- Chelsea lost their most recent fixture which might make them set up more cautiously away from home.
- Everton have also recorded two wins recently which proves they can keep things tight at the back.
The bottom lineWe back Over 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.