The matchupThe market makes Atlético Madrid the side to beat here at 51%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Atlético Madrid, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Atletico Madrid arrive with three wins from their last five matches to face an Espanyol side struggling for consistency. The visitors are priced at 1.83 to take all three points at the RCDE Stadium.
Form and momentumEspanyol come in poor, winning 28% of 40 on record. 5 of their 20 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 2 losss in a row.
Atlético Madrid come in solid, winning 50% of 40 on record. 7 of their 20 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 3 wins in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 24% for ESP, 26% for the draw and 51% for ATM once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Atlético Madrid, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.83, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
When these two meetThese two have been level across 2 past meetings, 1 wins each and 0 drawn. Nothing in the history separates them.
Where it could go wrong- Atletico Madrid stumbled in their most recent two fixtures by losing their last two matches in a row.
- Espanyol managed a draw in their recent run which shows they can frustrate stronger opponents on their own turf.
The bottom lineWe back Atlético Madrid for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.