The matchupThe market makes Eintracht Frankfurt the side to beat here at 40%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on SC Freiburg, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Freiburg arrive in strong winning form while Frankfurt cannot buy a result lately. The away price of 2.70 offers decent value.
Form and momentumEintracht Frankfurt come in poor, winning 25% of 40 on record. 6 of their 19 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
SC Freiburg come in patchy, winning 43% of 37 on record. 5 of their 18 away games went their way, and the numbers point to games at both ends, plenty of goals either way. Right now they are on 4 wins in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 40% for SGE, 25% for the draw and 35% for SCF once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.70, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
When these two meetAcross 2 past meetings SGE hold the edge with 1 wins to 0, with 1 drawn. Old results carry less weight than they look, but the pattern is worth a glance.
Where it could go wrong- SC Freiburg only managed a single draw in their most recent fixture which slightly tempers expectations for this away trip.
- Eintracht Frankfurt play on their home turf at the Deutsche Bank Park where they will desperately fight to end their losing streak.
The bottom lineWe back SC Freiburg for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.