The matchupThe market makes Defensores de Belgrano the side to beat here at 50%, which gives this game a clear shape before a ball is kicked. Our model lands on Defensores de Belgrano, and it backs that with a 1 unit stake. Defensores de Belgrano return to their home ground hoping to bounce back quickly. Los Andes arrive in poor form but hard to beat.
Form and momentumDefensores de Belgrano come in patchy, winning 33% of 3 on record. 1 of their 2 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.
Los Andes come in poor, winning 0% of 3 on record. 0 of their 2 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 2 draws in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 50% for DEF, 30% for the draw and 19% for AND once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. That is a firm lean toward Defensores de Belgrano, so the question is whether the form backs the price or quietly argues against it. Our call sits at 1.91, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Defensores suffered two losses in a row recently
- Los Andes can secure a draw on the road
The bottom lineWe back Defensores de Belgrano for 1 unit. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.