The matchupThe market makes Defensa y Justicia the side to beat here at 38%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Defensa y Justicia, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Defensa y Justicia hold home advantage at Norberto Tomaghello and sit at an appealing price of 2.50 to secure another victory.
Form and momentumDefensa y Justicia come in solid, winning 57% of 7 on record. 3 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
Instituto (Córdoba) come in strong, winning 71% of 7 on record. 1 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side built on a tight back line. Right now they are on 2 wins in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 38% for DYJ, 31% for the draw and 31% for IACC once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.50, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Instituto have also managed three wins in their past five outings proving they are tough opponents in this division.
- Instituto picked up a solid draw in their most recent game which shows they can frustrate hosts on the road.
The bottom lineWe back Defensa y Justicia for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.