The matchupThe market makes Mineros de Zacatecas the side to beat here at 38%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Mineros de Zacatecas, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Mineros arrive with better recent momentum than their hosts and offer a fair price to take all three points on the road. Cruz Azul Hidalgo struggle for consistency and sit behind them in the recent form guide.
Form and momentumCruz Azul Hidalgo come in poor, winning 17% of 6 on record. 1 of their 3 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 2 losss in a row.
Mineros de Zacatecas come in solid, winning 50% of 6 on record. 1 of their 3 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 2 wins in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 36% for CAH, 25% for the draw and 38% for MDZ once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 2.35, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Mineros de Zacatecas have also suffered two defeats in their last five matches which shows they can be beaten.
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo did manage one recent victory and a draw so they might spring a surprise at home.
The bottom lineWe back Mineros de Zacatecas for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.