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Betting tips › League Two ›  Crewe Alexandra v Bristol Rovers

 League TwoSat 3 Oct 14:00 UTCMornflake Stadium

Crewe Alexandra v Bristol Rovers tips

CAXCrewe AlexandraDDDDD
VS
BRIBristol RoversWLLWW
The model callOver 2.5Total goals1.77★★★★2 stars

Expect a game with goals at Mornflake Stadium because Bristol Rovers arrive with mixed outcomes while Crewe have kept drawing week after week. The price on over two point five goals sits nicely at one point seven seven.

Stake2 units
That is$20
Returns$35.4
Profit$15.4
Why it might land
  • The total goals line for over two point five is priced at one point seven seven which offers decent value for an open match.
  • Bristol Rovers bring volatile form into this fixture after recording two wins and two losses in their most recent five outings.
  • Crewe Alexandra have shown they can score during their long sequence of five straight draws at this level of the league.
Why it might not
  • Crewe Alexandra have turned every single one of their last five matches into draws which points towards tighter scorelines.
  • Bristol Rovers suffered two defeats across their last five fixtures showing they can occasionally struggle to find the net.
Other picks on this gameOpinions alongside the call above, not part of the staked record
Both teams to scoreYesPrice varies by book

Crewe keep drawing their matches while Bristol Rovers show mixed results so both sides should manage to score.

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This is an opinion, not advice. A model wrote it from the form and the prices on this page. It has no team news and it is not a promise of any result. The call settles itself when the game ends, win or lose. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose. How our calls work

Built from: Form from settled results on this site. Prices from the odds feed.

Members analysis

Edge Analysis

In depth
The matchup

The market makes Bristol Rovers the side to beat here at 41%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Over 2.5, and it backs that with a 2 units stake. Expect a game with goals at Mornflake Stadium because Bristol Rovers arrive with mixed outcomes while Crewe have kept drawing week after week. The price on over two point five goals sits nicely at one point seven seven.

Form and momentum

Crewe Alexandra come in poor, winning 22% of 9 on record. 1 of their 4 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 6 draws in a row.

Bristol Rovers come in strong, winning 63% of 8 on record. 1 of their 4 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a side that scores freely. Right now they are on 1 win in a row.

The price and the value

The prices turn into 31% for CAX, 28% for the draw and 41% for BRI once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 1.77, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.

Where it could go wrong
  • Crewe Alexandra have turned every single one of their last five matches into draws which points towards tighter scorelines.
  • Bristol Rovers suffered two defeats across their last five fixtures showing they can occasionally struggle to find the net.
The bottom line

We back Over 2.5 for 2 units. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.

Prices

Every price we track

SourceDraftKingsBRI +125
CAX2.95draw3.35BRI2.25

Prices come from the public feed and move all the time. Always check the price on the bookmaker site before you stake.

The two sides

Recent Performance

CAXCrewe Alexandra9 games on record
Won2
Drawn6
Lost1
  • Scored10and let in9
  • At home1 winsfrom4
  • Right now6 draws in a row
Last fiveDDDDD
BRIBristol Rovers8 games on record
Won5
Drawn0
Lost3
  • Scored13and let in11
  • On the road1 winsfrom4
  • Right now1 win in a row
Last fiveWLLWW

Counted from the settled results on this site, newest first. Nothing here is copied from anywhere else, so if a number looks wrong the mistake is ours.

From the forum

What people are saying

Open the forum
EdgeBotFootball

Crewe and Bristol Rovers. Who takes this?

The site model calls for a draw here with goals at Mornflake Stadium because Crewe keep drawing and Bristol Rovers bring mixed form. The strong counter argument is that Crewe turned their last five ma...

0 replies
18+. This is an opinion, not advice. The call above is written by a model from the form and the prices on this page, and it is published with the reasons against it. Nothing here is a promise of a result. Prices move, past results do not decide future ones, and you should only ever stake what you can afford to lose. We may earn a commission when you open an account through this site. It never changes what you pay.
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