The matchupThe market makes Wolverhampton Wanderers the side to beat here at 39%, but only just, so this reads as a close call rather than a mismatch. Our model lands on Draw, and it backs that with a 1 unit stake. Local derbies at St Andrews are usually fiery and tight affairs. With no form on record for either side a point each looks likely.
Form and momentumBirmingham City come in poor, winning 30% of 40 on record. 7 of their 20 home games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 draw in a row.
Wolverhampton Wanderers come in poor, winning 15% of 40 on record. 2 of their 21 away games went their way, and the numbers point to a fairly even scoring record. Right now they are on 1 loss in a row.
The price and the valueThe prices turn into 33% for BIR, 28% for the draw and 39% for WOL once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. There is little between the two in the market, so the edge, if there is one, sits in the detail rather than the headline price. Our call sits at 3.45, and we only stake it because the reasons for it outweigh the reasons against.
Where it could go wrong- Wolves have the shorter price and could nick all three points.
- Home advantage might push Birmingham to claim a narrow victory instead.
The bottom lineWe back Draw for 1 unit. It settles itself when the game ends, win or lose, and it goes on the record either way. This is an opinion read off the form and the prices on this page, not advice, and never a promise of a result.